I spent a few minutes with NY’s GOP Chairman Ed Cox on Thursday because I wanted to know if his party planned to run any “big names” against the likes of Schumer, Cuomo, Paterson, et al. This year the Democratic ticket in NY is as strong as ever when it comes to big names that can draw big money. One school of thought says, as Cox himself put to me, “You can’t beat somebody with nobody.” But that’s exactly what the Republicans hope to do this year.
Cox likens his party’s ticket to 1994 when a virtual unknown (George Pataki) upset incumbent Mario Cuomo to become Governor. Or in 1980 when a Hempstead Town Supervisor (Alfonse D’Amato) was elected U.S. Senator. Cox and his party understandably feel the anti-incumbent and anti-Democratic sentiment that’s led to GOP wins in Virginia, New Jersey, and most recently in Massachusetts will be enough to carry NY Republicans to victory in 2010. As a result the few big names the party has left (George Pataki and Rudy Giuliani) won’t be running for any of these offices – leaving their party to back the likes of Rick Lazio for Governor or Bruce Blackman for Senate.
It’s at this point that I have two observations.
1) The “spin” is a solid one – comparing 2010 to upsets many recall in 1994 & 1980 – but what Cox likely knows is the real reason his party isn’t running ‘big name’ candidates is because there aren’t any to run. For quite a few election cycles NY has been a “Blue State” and it has clearly depleted the ranks of qualified, well-known Republican candidates. In a year when winning a major seat in NY is going to cost more than ever, the GOP lacks a political superstar atop the ticket that will draw voters to the polls and fundraisers to the campaign war chests of candidates throughout the state. (And don’t forget – the NYS Senate is very much up for grabs to both parties, trickle-down votes & campaign funds could be key to Democrats win)
2) If this momentum within the party and among NY voters fed up with incumbents is as strong as Cox hopes it is, then why aren’t the big names running? If a groundswell of disappointment in the Democratic Party is truly widespread than surely a Pataki or Rudy would win a Senate seat against a vulnerable Sen. Gellibrand right? Wouldn’t either of them pose a serious threat to a Cuomo or a Paterson if armed with this “Scott Brown in Massachusetts” sentiment? Truth is, I’m not sure that sentiment is as strong as Cox and many Republican leaders think it is…not in New York. Meaning the GOP message must be more than tissue-paper thin optimism that 2010 looks like 1994. With re-districting based on Census results just around the corner, Democrats are going to mount strong campaigns to defend their seats…Republicans will need a substantive message that trumps big names and perceived momentum if they wish to repeat their past successes.
