When I saw “feasibility study” among the appendices for the city’s Midtown Plaza environmental impact statement, I immediately thought of the ferry’s many feasibility studies.
Unlike the ferry studies, however, this one seems more conservative.
And in some ways – sobering.
In order to justify using public funds to tear down Midtown, the city has to demonstrate the likelihood of being able to develop the site.
First, the bad news:
“Redevelopment in Downtown Rochester still faces considerable challenges as noted in this report and the pacing of potential development is likely to be very gradual…perceptions of the area remain somewhat negative. Construction costs for office development and residential are high and could make new development prohibitive without substantial subsidies. Additionally Rochester’s macroeconomic outlook is clouded by its heavy reliance on a few industries and continued declines in manufacturing employment in spite of increased diversification in its employment base.”That’s quite a note of caution. Not one that has been significantly emphasized by city officials.
Now the good news:
The authors think the city will be able to build up the site - eventually.
The study looked at retail, housing, and hotel space. The authors gave low, base, and high scenarios.
The low scenario assumes the community continues to favor suburban sprawl. The base and high scenarios assume that trend will be reversed, and are highly dependent on PAETEC’s following through with its plans to build its headquarters on the site.
Office:Low: 1,311 jobs, 219,000 square feet
High: 4,330, 725,000 square feet
(In comparison, Midtown has a total of 1.5 million square feet.)
Residential:Low: 239 units
High: 297 units
Retail:Low: 306,000 square feet
High 338,000 square feet
Hotel: 100 rooms (I did a
story on this aspect of the city’s vision.)
My first reaction is that the numbers seem somewhat conservative.
If you want to read more, I’ve linked the report. It’s not too long and it’s an easy read. There are warnings throughout the study. Makes for a good discussion on the risks associated with demolishing Midtown.
