NY-26 & Other Special Elections
Voter registration in the NY-26th favors Republicans. Approximate registration numbers from New York State show 170,000 Republicans, 143,000 Democrats, 20,000 Independents, 9,500 Conservatives, and nearly 90,000 Blanks.
That advantage typically explains why many consider Republican Jane Corwin the current front-runner. In the NY-29th a Special Election this past November was held to replace Democrat Eric Massa and it was Republican Tom Reed who rode a 171,000 to 128,000 voter registration advantage to a victory over Democrat Matt Zeller.
Yet 2009 offers two very interesting case studies in Congressional Special Elections. In the NY-23rd spanning much of New York’s North Country a special election drew national attention when Conservative Doug Hoffman forced Republican Dede Scozzafava to withdraw from the race. Republicans voter registration advantage was 167,000 to 121,000 over Democrats yet Democrat Bill Owens managed the upset despite Hoffman’s momentum.
Republicans were also expected to win a special election that year in the NY-20th spanning east and north of Albany. Voter registration again favored Republicans (187,000 to 122,000 Democrats) and yet Democrat and political unknown Scott Murphy pulled out a narrow upset (a few hundred votes) over Republican Jim Tedisco.
*Note: Green Party Candidate Ian Murphy of Amherst is also on the ballot and received a 1% response in the Siena College Poll. Murphy has not opened a campaign finance account and is not required to until he raises or spends more than $5,000.
