NY-29 BLOG: Here’s What I’m Hearing (UPDATE)

Reported by: Sean Carroll
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Updated: 6/23/2010 6:50 pm
UPDATE: As expected, Monroe County Maggie Brooks announced Friday morning that she is not running for the 29th District seat.


Rochester, N.Y. -- Friday is upon us and Massa’s trying his best to live up to his “gone in 72 hours” line of thinking.  So let’s look at fun questions like - Who will replace him?  When’s this Special Election?  Who are my choices? Etc…

To focus on what could be the third of four thrilling elections in this district in just 4 years, I offer you some of “what I’m hearing” in my many, many, many phone conversations.  (And I admit, I’m also applying my own political analysis to this – do not mistake that for an “editorial” please.)
New York Governor David Paterson (D)
New York Governor David Paterson (D)
Governor & Special Election:  The governor said “as soon as possible” and I believe him.  But “possible” means a few things.  First it must be “possible” that the Democratic Party Chairs in 8 counties are at least close to agreeing on a candidate. 

Second, this is budget season, we’re talking a special election; there are town-village-local elections to juggle, costs, scheduling conflicts, a few “independent investigations” in Albany underway, and…well…I just think this isn’t priority #1 for Governor Paterson. 

It must be scheduled 30-to-40 days after he declares the seat vacant, no rush.
Tom Reed (R) Running for Congress
Tom Reed (R) Running for Congress
GOP Circling Wagons?  Former Congressman Randy Kuhl pulled out this week.  A hush fell over the names of State Senators and Assemblymen who were mentioned. 

It’s Monroe County Executive Maggie Brooks or former Corning Mayor Tom Reed.  I feel as if Brooks is the #1 choice of a few influential people in the district and D.C. 

Something I failed to point out in my previous handicapping was her fundraising prowess and with a cash-conscious (if not “strapped”) NRCC that’s attractive.  

Brooks has her annual fundraiser Saturday night in Rochester and checks are already cut.  Sure, they’d be torn up and re-written if she wanted in, but I’m just not hearing the chatter.  The wagons seem circled around Reed and as of now (and 5 days ago) I think he’s the guy.

Dems are Slow-Playing:  Even if it’s Brooks and not Reed, it’s still one of the two on the GOP side.  The Democrats are still tossing 3, 4, 5, 6 names around in the air and I’m not sure they’re done.  With a Democratic Governor who has other priorities and perhaps with an optimistic hope that Massa remains “off-stage” for a little while – I think the Dems are slow-playing this hand.  Time is on their side and that’s all the more important when searching for a competitive Democrat in the NY-29.  What am I hearing?  Assemblyman David Koon of Fairport, Brighton Town Supervisor Sandra Frankel, Canandaigua Mayor Ellen Polimeni are still names in the discussion.  In each case they’ve either been approached, or continue to express interest.  The DCCC and the White House are (as I understand it) interested in this race and inquiring about potential candidates.  Given the lack of rallying behind one or two candidates I’m inclined to believe the party’s turning over rocks and stones in search of something new and interesting.  Sound far-fetched?  Monroe County Democratic Chair Joseph Morelle hinted at it in this D&C article:

Morelle said Democrats also are looking at non-traditional candidates with no background in holding elected office.

I think perhaps this is because Monroe County District Attorney Mike Green was the #1 choice until he promptly said “no.”  Hornell Mayor Shawn Hogan also removed his name and I’ve heard no whispers from the sparse crop of Democrats in the Southern Tier.

With that in mind I offer you two names.  Multiple Democratic sources have now confirmed for me that each has been approached by party officials.

David Nachbar, Pittsford:  I handicapped him as a “Wild Card” behind Green and Koon.  He’s a former Bausch & Lomb executive who is now operating a private business.  He also lost a State Senate bid to unseat Jim Alesi in 2008 and was considering a primary against Massa the year prior.  He could be a tough sell to Southern Tier voters but no Democrat stands a chance without Monroe County so a candidate from the northern part of the district makes sense.

Mary Wilmot, Pittsford:  Here’s a new one for you.  I’ve confirmed she’s been approached by Democratic Party leaders.  Wilmot is currently Governor Paterson’s Regional Director for this territory, has experience in the non-profit and business management fields, a masters degree in education, and some time off to be a mom is also on her resume.  In handicapping this one must remember that Wilmot, being of the Wilmot family that owns many local malls, has access to deep pockets and that could be desirable for the DCCC.  (Same could be said for Nachbar)  Wilmot also currently works for the only man in charge of scheduling this special election.

Surely one strategy the DCCC is considering involves making the NRCC sink some money into this race to weaken their footing a bit in other Specials or going into November.  Accomplishing that without having to make an overwhelming investment of their own becomes an added plus.  That line of thinking favors Wilmot and Nachbar, but it also favors a “let’s take our time” approach to candidate selection.

Unless the Dems find something “under a stone” I suspect you’ll see the following two names at the end of any short list and then it comes down to who wants it and who owns the intangibles to endure an intensely scrutinized political campaign.  (9 months smashed into 40 days)

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The views expressed here do not necessarily represent those of 13WHAM-TV || Rochester

MrDemocracy - 3/18/2010 3:31 PM
0 Votes
I think Samara Barend would be an excellent choice. She has a great life story (brought I-86 to the region) and came close to defeating Kuhl. As I recall the whole "dirty politics" charge was proven to be a bunch of bull. An intern for her campaign legally obtained court records on Randy Kuhl which showed that he has a history of domestic violence -- as the AP confirmed. I fail to see how airing the facts is "dirty." What I do remember is that Samara had fresh ideas and a track record of actually accomplishing things for the district. Here's hoping she runs again!

Jim4now - 3/15/2010 11:16 AM
0 Votes
"DowninStuben" wrote: "Any chance that Samara Barend, the young Southern Tier-born lady who fought such a spirited campaign against Randy the first time out..." I'm a member of the Democratic party who lives in Brighton and I did NOT vote for Ms. Barend when she ran against Randy Kuhl. As I recall, she ran a campaign based on dirty politics. That someone so new to the political process would stoop so low in her first campaign did not give me a good feeling as to her future. Cross her off the list of potential candidates!

Speakfreely - 3/13/2010 4:18 PM
0 Votes
The recent resignation of Congressman Eric Massa has left the 29th Congressional District without representation during this crucial time in our nation's history. As the Congress may very soon be calling for a floor vote on the Government Healthcare Plan, we deserve to have our district represented in Congress. The only way this can happen is by the Governor of New York setting the date for a special election to be held within 30 to 40 days of his announcement, every day he delays is another day we are without representation. To compound this critical issue are the several school board and school budget votes that will be held on May 18, 2010. As these school board/budget votes will utilize the very same machine we will needed for the special election and by law those machines have to be secured for 30 days preceding and 3o days after those school budget/board votes it is crucial that the special election be held prior 30 days prior to the school district votes. If this does not happen, we will not be able to have a special election until mid June or July. That means possibly four months without our 29th District voices, hearts and minds being represented on the floor of the House of Representatives. At this crucial time, that is simply unacceptable and cannot stand. What can you do? 1. You can call or email your state representatives in the NYS Assembly and Senate and ask that they pressure the Governor to move quickly to set a date for our special election. 2. You can call every news media source in the 29th Congressional District and ask them to cover this lapse in representation. But, You cannot do nothing and expect others to do this for you, you must engage, we must be successful. Yours in faith and patriotism, Steven

DowninSteuben - 3/12/2010 10:41 AM
1 Vote
Any chance that Samara Barend, the young Southern Tier-born lady who fought such a spirited campaign against Randy the first time out, and who carried Monroe County heavily against him, would be available? Her name is well-remembered, she attracts plenty of young people, and she really would be a worthy candidate. She had been an intern/staffer for Sen. Moynihan.

SCarroll - 3/12/2010 10:02 AM
0 Votes
Jim4Now --- Thanks for the compliments and comments. As to your point, don't underestimate the Monroe County portion of this district. It's a larger "sliver" than you think and accounts for a solid third of the electorate because of population density. I agree that this has always been seen as a "Southern Tier Set" and combing that region for a candidate is ideal...but finding quality Democrats down there is a needle-in-the-haystack approach. (hope that helps)

Jim4now - 3/12/2010 8:35 AM
0 Votes
Sean, thank you for the overview of what may lie ahead for the 29th. At this point I am ready to create a "March madness" style bracket to try and figure out who my next representative will be. I do have a question for you: since Monroe County is only a sliver of the 29th district, shouldn't there be more than one possible candidate from the southern parts of the district? There must be someone from Cattaraugus, Steuben, or Yates counties that is interested in this job. Is the reason the fact that a candidate from that region couldn't raise the necessary funding to run?

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