NY-29: Handicapping the Democratic Field (UPDATE)

***UPDATE: Monday 3/8, 11am.  Hornell Mayor Shawn Hogan says he's not interested in running.  Take his name off the list.  His statement his here.

Click here for the GOP Depth Chart.  This is how I see the Democrats stacking up.  Keep in mind no matter the candidate they begin this campaign with the “short stack” for the following reasons:

NY-29 is a GOP District – voter registration tells the whole story.  175,000 Republicans, 130,000 Democrats, 86,000 blanks.
Incumbency Problem – as seen in Massachusetts, NJ, and Virginia the off-year anti-incumbency momentum is in full swing. 
Massa – he’s not leaving office under the most ideal of situations.  There’s his health but there’s also the Ethics Investigation and an avalanche of speculation to the unknown surrounding it.

That being said, here’s how I see the Democratic Depth Chart shaping up right now:

1) Mike Green, Monroe County District Attorney, Pittsford resident:  When I broke the news Saturday night the landscape of the 29th for Democrats changed.  His strengths are numerous.  Resident of district, respected prosecutor, a former Republican himself, bi-partisan respect with Monroe County voters, a “law and order guy” in a conservative district, a squeaky clean public image, and with all due respect to the other candidates on both sides of the aisle I think it can be argued that Green may have the “Smartest Guy in the Room” thing going for him too.  That immediately leads me to his shortcomings as a candidate in the 29th.  Is he the smartest guy in the room on Healthcare issues?  Bank bailouts?  Job stimulus?  Economic growth?  Manufacturing and agricultural industries?  All these are crucial to residents of the 29th and to being an effective and complete Congressman.  Green may very well have positions on these topics, but as D.A. it’s not part of his political profile.  The biggest question mark in my opinion is does he want it?  He’s a lawyer, a prosecutor, a lover of the justice system and congress is a whole different branch of government.  One has to believe a judgeship or federal prosecutor job is more up Green’s alley.  I have every reason to believe he’s the #1 choice from Democratic leaders in the 29th and D.C. – but his candidacy is far from assured.  That being said the “nothing to lose” argument neatly applies here: running ingratiates him to party apparatus and probably moves his name up the list for any judicial/prosecutorial appointments he may seek, at the end of the day he’s still a highly respected D.A., or at worst (insert chuckle here) he’s a U.S. Congressman.

2) Shawn Hogan, Hornell Mayor & Steuben County Democratic Party Chairman:  #2 and #3 on this list are virtually interchangeable in my opinion but given that this is always seen as a “Southern Tier Seat” I’m giving the slight edge to Hogan.  He’s widely respected in Hornell, Steuben County, and among Southern Tier Democrats.  As a party chairman he can even apply votes to himself in this process.  His name recognition in the Southern Tier exceeds all other names on this Democratic list, he appears willing and interested in running, and he’s Massa’s #1 choice.  Which immediately leads to his biggest shortcoming – he’s Massa’s #1 choice.  I know Hogan to be a loyal man (even to former Governor Eliot Spitzer who he still proudly calls “a friend”) but if he’s the nominee I think he needs to begin distancing himself from Massa right away…at least until this mystery “allegation/complaint” before the House Ethic Committee is revealed and more than likely even after it’s revealed.  The other shortcoming is ironic when you consider I have Tom Reed (former Corning Mayor) atop the GOP Depth Chart – experience and skill-set.  Balancing a city budget in a Southern Tier community is one thing.  Taking the podium on the House floor and laying out a policy position on the future of Medicare, high speed rail, and stimulus dollars is quite a “call up to the big leagues” in a short amount of time.

3) David Koon, NYS Assembly, Fairport:  In a special election where the national spotlight could turn to the 29th, at a time when Americans are increasingly disgruntled with their leaders in Washington, and a “breath of fresh air” is desired by many – Koon offers a unique departure from the norm.  His story for entering politics following the abduction and murder of his daughter is sure to grab headlines in the Southern Tier and beyond; Monroe County folks are familiar with the story but it’s news to many beyond those borders.  He’s paid his political dues over the years and has yet to get the “call up” from the party apparatus that decides who’s the next up-n-comer for County Executive, State Senate, or Congress.  This could be his time but beware of how the opposition will paint Koon; as an Assembly Democrat.  No matter how many times Koon broke ranks on votes and issues; in this “Southern Tier Seat” a candidate who is mentioned in the same sentence as “Speaker Shelly Silver” is going to face a steep uphill battle.  This is the other reason I gave Hogan the #2 slot on this list.

WILDCARD: David Nachbar, businessman & former political candidate, Pittsford resident:  Nachbar was gearing up for a primary challenge against Massa in 2007, he most recently lost to NY State Senator Jim Alesi in 2008, he’s a former Bausch & Lomb VP, currently a private businessman, and is wealthy enough to overcome any fundraising shortfalls and challenges that are realistic obstacles for many candidates in a special election setting.  Nachbar’s interested in politics, has Healthcare talking points to go along with a private business background and economy/jobs talking points.  Despite a rather shaky entry to politics thus far, I do not think it’s out of the realm of possibilities for Democrats to polish him up and present him as a new Democratic face to the district.  Nachbar’s shortcomings are superficial but a reality with the electorate in the 29th – “Wealthy Pittsford Democrat” is a tough sell to “working class Southern Tier voter.”  I mean no disrespect; I’m just putting forth my analysis.

LEFTOVERS:
DCCC – It’s reasonable to expect that interest from D.C. Democrats falls into 2 categories.  First they know the disadvantage Dems face but could force the NRCC to spend money here thus weakening GOP cash flow entering the crucial midterms this November.  Second, if they get “their guy” (presumably Green?) and sink everything into this race an improbable victory could drastically change the political landscape entering November and the Dems could very well steal back some of the “Scott Brown in Massachusetts” momentum.  (But is this really the fight they want to pick?)
Scope of a 29th Special – How much attention this race garners beyond the walls of WNY could dictate who we see holding hands with these candidates.  29th District Democrats dream scenario is a visit from the Clinton’s and Cuomo and a return to the grassroots effort that earned Massa a victory in 2008 with that “Obama Wave” of momentum filling the sails.
Tea for 29? – On that exact point, the 29th narrowly went to McCain in 2008 and any Democrat seriously pursuing this seat should brace for the GOP dream scenario.  Tea Party rallies and a surprise visit from Sarah Palin (to name one) could drag the GOP base to the polls and that's certainly not out of the question.