WILDCARD: David Nachbar, businessman & former political candidate, Pittsford resident: Nachbar was gearing up for a primary challenge against Massa in 2007, he most recently lost to NY State Senator Jim Alesi in 2008, he’s a former Bausch & Lomb VP, currently a private businessman, and is wealthy enough to overcome any fundraising shortfalls and challenges that are realistic obstacles for many candidates in a special election setting. Nachbar’s interested in politics, has Healthcare talking points to go along with a private business background and economy/jobs talking points. Despite a rather shaky entry to politics thus far, I do not think it’s out of the realm of possibilities for Democrats to polish him up and present him as a new Democratic face to the district. Nachbar’s shortcomings are superficial but a reality with the electorate in the 29th – “Wealthy Pittsford Democrat” is a tough sell to “working class Southern Tier voter.” I mean no disrespect; I’m just putting forth my analysis.
DCCC – It’s reasonable to expect that interest from D.C. Democrats falls into 2 categories. First they know the disadvantage Dems face but could force the NRCC to spend money here thus weakening GOP cash flow entering the crucial midterms this November. Second, if they get “their guy” (presumably Green?) and sink everything into this race an improbable victory could drastically change the political landscape entering November and the Dems could very well steal back some of the “Scott Brown in Massachusetts” momentum. (But is this really the fight they want to pick?)
Scope of a 29th Special – How much attention this race garners beyond the walls of WNY could dictate who we see holding hands with these candidates. 29th District Democrats dream scenario is a visit from the Clinton’s and Cuomo and a return to the grassroots effort that earned Massa a victory in 2008 with that “Obama Wave” of momentum filling the sails.
Tea for 29? – On that exact point, the 29th narrowly went to McCain in 2008 and any Democrat seriously pursuing this seat should brace for the GOP dream scenario. Tea Party rallies and a surprise visit from Sarah Palin (to name one) could drag the GOP base to the polls and that's certainly not out of the question.