NY-29: Handicapping the GOP Field

2) Maggie Brooks, Monroe County Executive, Webster resident:  I have every reason to believe that some within the party (particularly some in D.C.) like her if the spotlight of national media attention shines on this district in a special election.  There’s no question her resume and appeal in the northern part of the district qualify her position on this list.  2 problems as I see it – the “carpetbagger” label will be attached, Massa was still branded with it and he lived in the district for a decade. (Brooks lives just outside the 29th)  Second, and more significant, if she departs it invites a potentially chaotic situation within the Monroe County GOP hierarchy.  It would be vastly different if a groomed and apparent successor to Brooks was waiting in the wings…some would suggest her former Deputy Jim Smith was that guy, but he’s going to trial this month on official misconduct charges.

3) Randy Kuhl, former Congressman & State Senator, Hammondsport:  Nobody on this list from either party brings the experience factor to the table in greater amounts.  He’s held this exact office before and is well-known to the electorate…perhaps too well known.  His weaknesses are two-fold – it can be argued voters spoke about him twice already, in his narrow 2006 victory over Massa and in his 2008 loss to Massa.  Also, he’s a bit late to this party if a special election takes place – party chairs have to desert Reed which requires an overwhelming affection or loyalty to Kuhl.  But don’t count out experience or a fall primary; I know he’s itching for a return.

WILDCARD:  Brian Kolb, Assembly Minority Leader, Canandaigua:  There’s a precedent in that former minority leader Tedesco was tapped for a congressional special election in NY-20 and he narrowly lost.  Kolb’s certainly qualified as a candidate for this seat and brings some unique traits to the table, but I think he’s far down the depth chart for 3 admittedly subjective reasons.  1)  He’s needed where he’s at.  2)  I get the sense he has other political aspirations.  3)  He strikes me as an odd fit for the 29th – he’s not “Southern Tier” and he’s not “Rochester/Monroe County” he has a peculiar “Finger Lakes Feel” to him and I’m not sure how that plays in this unique district.  (Just my analysis from 5+ years of covering this district and its campaigns.)

LEFTOVERS:
NY State Senators:  They’re “imprisoned” in Albany and must stay on the sidelines; the balance of power in that legislative body is far too sensitive to be messed with.  (see: Cathy Young, George Winner, Joe Robach, Jim Alesi)
NY State Assembly Members:  Aside from Kolb I don’t get the “ready for Prime Time” feel from any of these names, same goes for the Dems.  (Joe Errigo, Tom O’Mara, Jim Bacalles)
Name Recognition:  It doesn’t matter for any candidate and is overrated as a factor in a Special Election setting.  There will be a 30-60 day media microscope on this race, if you’re a voter going to the polls that day than you’re a voter who knows the horses in the race.